Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction, Preview, and Odds

The Memphis Grizzlies (20-11) meet the Golden State Warriors (15-18) at Chase Center for an 8 pm ET showcase on Christmas Day. The Grizzlies are 6.5-point favorites with the total set at 229 points.

Grizzlies welcome Warriors following 25-point Suns blowout

Memphis snapped a two-game losing streak Friday with a 125-100 win over Phoenix, easily covering as a three-point favorite. Now slotted at second in the West and six games ahead of Golden State, the Grizzlies are more than ready for their rematch of the 2022 Western Conference Semifinals. Memphis fell 110-96 in a Game 6 elimination clash the last time these two faced off and has waited for its moment to enact revenge all year long.

Star point guard and former No. 2 overall pick Ja Morant leads the Grizzlies with 26.5 points and 7.9 assists, ranking within the top 15 in the league in both categories. Desmond Bane follows Morant in scoring at 24.1 points per game (No. 21 in the NBA), while Steven Adams holds the top spot in rebounds with 10.2 boards per game (No. 9). Memphis is currently averaging the seventh-most points per game (115.7) on a 46.8-percent shooting clip overall. Danny Green (knee) is listed as OUT for Sunday’s contest.

Warriors take on rival Memphis without Curry and Wiggins

Since two-time MVP Stephen Curry went down with a left shoulder injury on Dec 14, the Warriors have gone 1-3 including a 143-113 loss to Brooklyn last time out. Needless to say, Golden State failed to cover in the 30-point stunner despite being double-digit underdogs (+10.5). Curry, who remains OUT on Sunday and is set to be re-evaluated in two weeks, will be sorely missed as he leads the Warriors with 30 points (No. 6 in the NBA) and 6.8 assists (No. 16) per game . With Golden State still one game back from even a play-in spot, sitting at No. 11 in the West, Klay Thompson and company will need to step up big.

Golden State is shorthanded beyond just Curry, too. Andrew Wiggins (abdominal), Andre Iguodala (hip) and JaMychal Green (quarantine) are also all OUT, while Draymond Green (foot) is QUESTIONABLE and Donte DiVincenzo (illness) is PROBABLE versus Memphis. On the season, the Warriors are averaging the fifth-most points per game (116.5) on the 10th-best field goal percentage (47.8) and fifth-best three-point percentage (38) in the NBA.

Best Bets

Full-Game Side Bet

Rating:


I’m taking the Grizzlies and the points. Golden State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four games without Curry, and across those three losses, the average margin of defeat is 26.7 points. Not to mention, the average margin over the last 10 games in this series is +2.6 in favor of Memphis as the Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in that span. Memphis is also 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games (covering three spreads at -6.5 or more) and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 against Pacific Division opponents. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 2-4 ATS in their last six games played on a Sunday. If you want a gift, side with Morant’s squad to give the Warriors another ATS loss for Christmas.

Prediction: Grizzlies -6.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Rating:


Give me the over. I don’t trust the Warriors’ scoring defense — ranked No. 27 in the league (117.9 ppg allowed) — as far as I can throw it in this spot, especially not when Memphis is a top-seven scoring offense. Golden State has given up 125.8 points per game since Curry went down, averaging 109.8 points of his own in the same span. On the flip side, the Grizzlies have posted 125 points or more in three of their last five outings. The over is also 6-0 in the Warriors’ last six overall and 5-1 in their last six against Western Conference competition. After what we just witnessed happen to the Warriors against Brooklyn, knowing that Memphis has two top-25 scorers, there’s no way I’d touch the bottom here.

Prediction: Over 229

Written By
Trevor Ritchie, “Trevor Ritchie”

Trevor Ritchie has built his entire career in the sports media industry with the better part of this past decade spent in betting analysis. We now add Trevor to the Stat Salt team with experience in tow covering the NFL (Saints), NBA (Pelicans), NCAA (Southern Miss/Michigan), combat sports, and more. He graduated from Southern Mississippi in 2019 with a degree in News/Editorial Journalism and uses a wide range of analytics to analyze all the important contests. Follow him daily across his social media channels (@ritchietmr) to stay ahead of the curve on any sports gambling needs. We are very happy to have Trevor as a part of our growing team

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